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Fasten your Seat Belt

Why we have never felt more bearish in our 25 years career The background: · The US stock market is more overvalued than it has even been ( https://research.nava.capital/market-valuations/) which in itself has little influence on short-term market gyrations. To this we must add that the Grantham behavioral

Biotech, Panic is in the Air!

As you probably know by now, one of our strategy, the Sentinel Gurus US [https://research.nava.capital/us-sentinel-an-introduction/], uses the holdings of more than 100 managers to create the universe on which we run our quantitative screens. The methodology looks like this: For most of the rest of this

Art unit'd kingdom equities cheap'r than their unit'd states counteth'rparts and art they a valorous relative buyeth anon?

Art unit'd kingdom equities cheap'r than their unit'd states counteth'rparts and art they a valorous relative buyeth anon?

In December 2021 we wrote an article with the title “US Market Valuations: Looking down the Abyss!” where we came to the conclusion that the US S&P 500 was unlikely to generate positive real total return during the next 10 years. The article can be found on LinkedIn

US Market Valuations: Looking down the Abyss!

“Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” S. Klarman “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easier person to fool.” R. Feynman In this brief note, our goal is to show readers, as objectively as

US Sentinel - November 2020 Update

Year to date performance analysis of the US Sentinel vs two US benchmarks

An Introduction to the NAVA Toolbox

An Introduction to the NAVA Toolbox

The NAVA Toolbox allows to quickly perform standard financial analysis on time series

Is Market Timing worth the Effort?

"We continue to make more money when snoring than when active." Warren Buffett "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves." Peter Lynch "In the financial markets, hindsight is forever

Market Valuations: Do they Still Matter?

market valuation

Market Valuations: Do they Still Matter?

“Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” B. Graham “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” B. Graham “Value investing is at its core the marriage of a contrarian streak and a calculator.” S.

Enhanced Indices: Let's be passively active.

Enhanced Indices: Let's be passively active.

"In the longer run and for wide-reaching issues, more creative solutions tend to come from imaginative interdisciplinary collaboration." Robert Shiller In this post we will tackle the subject of passive equity investing and how we think it can be improved. To do so we will present our enhanced

US Sentinel - May 2020 Update

Yesterday was a rebalancing day for the US Sentinel strategy. All 13F have been filled & published on the SEC Edgar website on Friday. We took this opportunity to review the year-to-date performance of this portfolio. How did the strategy hold during the recent market turmoil? MetricsS&P500 TRCustom

Are Dividend Aristocrats Still a Good Alternative?

Are Dividend Aristocrats Still a Good Alternative?

In 2005, S&P came up with a new index they called the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index. To be included, a member of the S&P 500 must have increased its dividend payouts for at least 25 years and a minimum market cap of USD

Magic Formula globally, just a start...

Magic Formula globally, just a start...

I was a pure fundamental stock picker during the first 8 years of my career. During those years I also worked as a strategist for one of the largest bank in the world. I believed that at the macro level markets were sufficiently inefficient that systematic quantitative models could give

US Sentinel - an introduction

US Sentinel - an introduction

Investment Philosophy: Combining Good Ideas Differently Investing has a lot in common with biology. Life has endured for billions of years under changing and sometimes very hostile conditions. This was possible due to the uncanny capacity of biological forms to select and combine the characteristics that best guaranteed its survival.